Adapting for Uncertainty: A Scenario Analysis of U.S. Technology Energy Futures
Policymakers and managers in the U.S. energy sector will face complex multidimensional challenges as they confront potential supply shortfalls, infrastructure constraints, and environmental limitations in the years ahead. Using a technique known as scenario analysis, this paper investigates key energy issues and decisions that could improve or reduce the ability of the United States to deal with the uncertainties that may challenge the U.S. economy during the next fifty years. Four scenarios have been developed representing a diverse range of future worlds to explore the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape U.S. energy markets and the economy for the next fifty years. Each scenario has been quantified using a computable general equilibrium model, the All Modular Industry Growth Assessment model, also known as the AMIGA modeling system. The preliminary results from the scenario analysis suggest that the range of feasible U.S. energy futures is broad, but that energy use is expected to grow under all scenarios.
Rights for Authors
As further described in our submission agreement (the Submission Agreement), in consideration for publication of the article, the authors assign to Energy Studies Review all copyright in the article, subject to the expansive personal--use exceptions described below.
Attribution and Usage Policies
Reproduction, posting, transmission or other distribution or use of the article or any material therein, in any medium as permitted by a personal-use exemption or by written agreement of Energy Studies Review, requires credit to Energy Studies Review as copyright holder (e.g., Energy Studies Review © 2014).
The following uses are always permitted to the author(s) and do not require further permission from DigitalCommons@McMaster provided the author does not alter the format or content of the articles, including the copyright notification:
- Storage and back-up of the article on the author's computer(s) and digital media (e.g., diskettes, back-up servers, Zip disks, etc.), provided that the article stored on these computers and media is not readily accessible by persons other than the author(s);
- Posting of the article on the author(s) personal website, provided that the website is non-commercial;
- Posting of the article on the internet as part of a non-commercial open access institutional repository or other non-commercial open access publication site affiliated with the author(s)'s place of employment (e.g., a Phrenology professor at the University of Southern North Dakota can have her article appear in the University of Southern North Dakota's Department of Phrenology online publication series); and
- Posting of the article on a non-commercial course website for a course being taught by the author at the university or college employing the author.
People seeking an exception, or who have questions about use, should contact the editors.