Fossil Fuels and European Power Markets

2007/08 Fossil Fuels Shock and its Causal Effects on European Power Markets


  • Lucia Morales Technological University Dublin
  • Jim Hanly



Fossil fuels were exposed to a major shock during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007/08. This paper examines the influence of Brent Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Coal on three major European power markets (APXUK, NordPool and Phelix) during this period of uncertainty. Both univariate and bivariate frameworks are employed to evaluate, short run, long run and asymmetric power market responses to fossil fuels behaviour. The results point to a stronger relationship between fossil fuel shocks and the APXUK market across all three generational fuels, while results for Phelix are significant only in the case of coal and crude oil. For the Nordic region there is no significant evidence of a causal effect between the power market and the broader energy markets. These findings highlight that the Nordic market appears to be insulated from fossil fuel shocks thanks to its strong focus on renewables, while APXUK and Phelix were significantly exposed to fossil fuels fluctuations.