Mexico's Long-Term Energy Outlook: Results of a Detailed Energy Supply And Demand Simulation

  • Guenter Conzelmann
  • Juan Quintanilla
  • Vicente Aguilar
  • Luis Alberto Conde
  • Jorge Fernández
  • Elizabeth Mar
  • Cecilia Martin del Campo
  • Gerardo Serrato
  • Rubén Ortega


This paper presents the results of a detailed, bottom-up analysis of Mexico's energy markets. A team of U.S, and Mexican analysts used the Energy and Power Evaluation Program (ENPEP) to develop energy market forecasts to the year 2025, Primary energy supply is projected to grow from 9,313 petajoules (Pl) in 1999 to 13,130 Pl by 2025, Mexico's crude oil production is expected to increase by 1% annually to 8,230 Pl in 2025. As its domestic crude refining capacity becomes unable to meet the rising demand for petroleum products, resulting from such factors as the country's rapidly growing transportation needs, imports of oil products will become increasingly important. Gasoline imports, for example, are expected to increase 12-fold, The Mexican natural gas markets are driven by the strong demand for gas in the power generating and manufacturing industries.