A Time Step Energy Process Model for Germany - Model Structure and Results

Dag Martinsen, Volker Krey, Peter Markewitz, Stefan Vögele

Abstract


The new IKARUS-Model is a time-step dynamical bottom-up linear optimization model where each time interval is optimized by itself using the heritage from all periods before. Contrary to perfect-foresight models, this model does not take into account future changes in each time-step optimization. It therefore shows a more realistic character of prognosis and projection. Aspects like reaction on sudden changes (e.g. of energy prices), flexibility of technical scenarios, lost opportunities etc. can be examined. Interactions with macroeconomic I/O-models or dependencies on elasticities, technological learning etc. are possible. Recent calculations for Germany up to 2030 show that consistent and plausible future energy scenarios can be produced and analyzed.


Full Text:

PDF


DOI: https://doi.org/10.15173/esr.v14i1.480


Dag Martinsen

Volker Krey

Peter Markewitz

Stefan Vögele