A Time Step Energy Process Model for Germany - Model Structure and Results

Dag Martinsen, Volker Krey, Peter Markewitz, Stefan Vögele


The new IKARUS-Model is a time-step dynamical bottom-up linear optimization model where each time interval is optimized by itself using the heritage from all periods before. Contrary to perfect-foresight models, this model does not take into account future changes in each time-step optimization. It therefore shows a more realistic character of prognosis and projection. Aspects like reaction on sudden changes (e.g. of energy prices), flexibility of technical scenarios, lost opportunities etc. can be examined. Interactions with macroeconomic I/O-models or dependencies on elasticities, technological learning etc. are possible. Recent calculations for Germany up to 2030 show that consistent and plausible future energy scenarios can be produced and analyzed.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15173/esr.v14i1.480

Dag Martinsen

Volker Krey

Peter Markewitz

Stefan Vögele