Western World Uranium Markets 1991-2000

Authors

  • Ciaran O'Faircheallaigh

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15173/esr.v2i1.206

Abstract

This article develops a forecast of uranium demand for the world outside the centrally-planned economies (WOCA) for each year during 1991-2000. It also indicates, on the basis of current production profiles and plans for new capacity, the likely level of uranium supply. A supply-demand balance is then calculated and used to draw conclusions regarding likely trends in uranium prices. The study predicts that demand will exceed supply during 1991-95, but that the shortfall can be covered by a small reduction in uranium stocks and is unlikely to result in more than a modest increase in uranium prices from their current low levels. Supply is expected to exceed demand in the second half of the decade, exerting downward pressure on uranium prices and probably returning them to their current levels in real terms. This forecast is based on the assumption that Australia will not develop new uranium mines during the 1990s; if it does so, stocks will rise, exerting strong downward pressure on prices.

Published

1990-08-01

Issue

Section

Articles